NOAA just gave us a glimpse into September’s weather. Guess what: it will (still) be hot
BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) – The Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA’s National Weather Service, updated the Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlook for September on Thursday. The forecast? You guessed it: Hotter-than-Average. This, of course, as Bryan-College Station and the Brazos Valley put the finishing touches on what will be the all-time hottest summer in our 141 years of record keeping and what is likely to be the all-time hottest August of record.
SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Hotter-than-average temperatures are expected for the Brazos Valley through the month of September
The agency has placed the Brazos Valley under a 50% to 60% chance that the average temperature for the month will end above average. This is the highest odds the forecast calls for across the entire Lower 48, which includes an area from San Antonio across Southeast Texas and a majority of Louisiana. The Four Corners region also holds the same probability as Meteorological Fall begins.
On average, September is typically the Brazos Valley’s fourth warmest month of the year. below is the baseline for the type of heat our part of Texas is expected to experience, per the last 30 years of weather locally:
Average Temperature for the Month: 80.6°Average High Temperature for the Month: 91.2°Average Low Temperature for the Month: 70.0°Average High temperature for September 1st: 94.6°Average Low Temperature for September 1st: 73.3°Average High Temperature for September 30th: 87.4°Average Low Temperature for September 30th: 65.9°
The hottest September in Bryan-College Station’s 141 years of record-keeping occurred in 2005 when the average temperature for the month ended at 85.0°. Four of the top five hottest September of record have occurred since then.
SEPTEMBER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
The Brazos Valley needs rain. The Climate Prediction Center says that 9″ to 12″ of wet weather needs to fall over a four-week window in order to eliminate the current severe drought conditions. After a drenching April, rainfall almost all but shut down in our part of Central and Southeast Texas, putting the area’s climate sites in a rainfall deficit for the year. As of August 17th, Bryan-College Station is behind on rainfall by 3.12″ for the year. Since May, that deficit is almost half a foot.
The Brazos Valley and Texas hold an equal chance of either above or below average rainfall over the month
The outlook for September calls for an equal chance of either above or below-average rainfall. Typically, about three and a half inches of rain is expected to fall on the Brazos Valley in this ninth month of the year. While that may sound promising, both July and August were given the same potential, and both fell to the well-below-average side of the scale. El Niño continues to develop in the Pacific Ocean and could start to impact the weather pattern more as the fall season gets into full swing. September is also the peak of hurricane season, which could bring heavy tropical rain to the Gulf Coast. Time will tell…
