Critical Fire Danger concerns return to Texas, Brazos Valley this week

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) – 381 days. As of Monday, that is how long it has been since Brazos County, and much of the Brazos Valley, has been included in a Red Flag Warning. While it was July 22nd, 2022 for Bryan-College Station, Caldwell, Navasota, and Madisonville, you have to go back to April 11th of last year to find the same for Giddings. That is until that critical fire danger concern was issued for Lee County by the National Weather Service for Tuesday, August 8th.

WHAT IS A RED FLAG WARNING

A Red Flag Warning is issued by the National Weather Service when warm (hot) temperatures, low humidity, dry fuel (vegetation, grass, etc), and strong winds are expected within 24 hours. Typically relative humidity needs to fall below 20% to 25% and have a forecast for frequent gusts between 20-25mph+ for at least 3 hours in order for this advisory to be issued.

Red Flag Warnings, while not unheard of, are not common in the Brazos Valley, due to the proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and higher humidity that typically is associated with it. When these warnings are issued, they are typically an issue in the spring months, usually in the wake of a cold front that sweeps in dry air from the north on a blustery, gusty north or northwest wind. Again, while not unheard of, these warnings are even more rare, locally in the summer months.

CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS

As of Monday evening, the National Weather Service has issued this critical fire danger concern for the following:

Milam County: Tuesday, August 8th from noon to 10pmLee County: Tuesday, August 8th from noon to 11pm
The National Weather Service has issued a RED FLAG WARNING for the far western Brazos Valley Tuesday

Monday Evening PinPoint Forecast: Critical Fire Danger concerns are in place for Texas this week. It continues west of the area Tuesday but is expected to spread into the Brazos Valley as the wind turns on a bit more this week pic.twitter.com/O6ByiNWAWr

— KBTX Weather (@KBTXWeather) August 8, 2023

FORECAST FIRE DANGER

Excessive heat in the form of 105°+ temperatures is expected to continue through the upcoming week, weekend, and into next week. While that is nothing new at this point, a big rainfall deficit and this brutal summer have led to extremely dry conditions across the Brazos Valley and Texas.

Fire Danger is marked at a level 4 out of 5 for the Brazos Valley Wednesday and Thursday

Couple that with dry air mixing out of the mid-levels of the atmosphere and dropping afternoon relative humidity to or below 25% and the fire danger comes up to a HIGH category Tuesday. By Wednesday, breezy/gusty south-southwest wind is expected to blow across the area with gusts 20-25mph+. Not only can a small spark or flame cause a fire to catch quickly, but it will likely spread rapidly as the wind blows it across very dry fuels. This will cause grass fires to grow fast, becoming harder to control and contain.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH could be issued for additional counties in the Brazos Valley Tuesday, which could be transitioned into a RED FLAG WARNING by late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

BURN BANS

All 16 counties in the area are under a BURN BAN until further notice. Outdoor burning is prohibited.

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO PREVENT ACCIDENTAL FIRES?

Use equipment responsibly: Use equipment that could generate sparks responsiblyAvoid outdoor burningBe prepared to take immediate action if a fire startsPrepare for a possible ignition or evacuation, like keeping your cell phone charged and knowing where family and friends areExtinguish grills and outdoor cooking properly. Do not leave them unattendedSoak ashes and charcoal in water and dispose of them in a metal canFollow all fire restrictions and burn bansReport any signs of fire or smoke to local authorities promptly