Eyes on Thursday’s severe weather potential

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) – After a relatively quiet Tuesday and Wednesday, clouds and humidity are set to increase soon. As the next weathermaker links up with a deep slug of tropical moisture, a few bumps in the form of rain and thunderstorms are in store as we close out the month of November. These may even try to take on a spring-like feel as we monitor for a chance at a few strong-to-severe storms Thursday.

THE NUTS & BOLTS

A tight swirl was noted on satellite in the Pacific Ocean, due west of Northern California Tuesday. This is the next upper-level storm system that will swing across the Western United States to reach Texas by Thursday. It also kinks the jet stream into a favorable position to allow for rain and thunderstorms to lift and form west and on top of the Brazos Valley.

Two different weather features will link up mid-to-late week to bring a chance for rain and storms back to the Brazos Valley

At the same time, a slug of deep tropical moisture is lurking in the far Southern Gulf of Mexico. This will be picked up by the upper-level winds and sideswipe Southeast Texas between Wednesday and Friday. This increase in atmospheric moisture will set the stage for the potential for heavy rainfall during this event.

STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT PROMISED, BUT CERTAINLY NOT RULED OUT

Rain and thunderstorms are possible as early as Thursday morning. Overcast skies and the chance of an early round of scattered showers will likely keep a “cap” — basically limiting factors — for thunderstorms to build and reach the greatest instability the atmosphere holds early in the day.

Breaks in the clouds by early afternoon will allow for temperatures to rise into the 70s and the atmosphere to destabilize. The high moisture content, combined with daytime heating and lift along the front, will provide some fuel for storms to develop. As winds increase and turn in direction with height, this will create “spin” in the atmosphere conducive for rotating and potential supercell thunderstorms. If storms manage to break past the limiting factors and tap into these dynamics, all types of severe weather would need to be monitored for, including:

Damaging, strong wind in excess of 40-60mphLarge hail between the size of a quarter and an egg in diameterFrequent lightningMinor street or low-lying floodingA tornado or two

As of Tuesday morning, the Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the Brazos Valley in a 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather, particularly late morning through early afternoon. While widespread rain is expected, the atmosphere may support a couple supercell thunderstorms, which will be capable of producing some strong winds or even an isolated tornado.

THURSDAY: Isolated to scattered severe risk from mid-morning to mid-afternoon as a low swings over the state.

There won’t be a TON of energy to work with, but low-level winds will be “spinny” enough for strong storms. Not for all, but we’ll keep an eye on it for you. pic.twitter.com/xLz3Bw446F

— Max Crawford 👍 (@KBTXMax) November 28, 2023

HOW MUCH RAIN ARE WE TALKING ABOUT HERE?

There is plenty of tropical moisture to tap into as this next rain event passes through Central and Southeast Texas. While rainfall totals are not expected to be uniform area-wide, 0.5″ to 1″ of rain very well could be common. Stronger thunderstorms could release a quick 1.5″ to 2″ as they race from west to east. These storms should be quick movers — storm motion is currently forecast around 40 mph. Overall flooding concern is low, but the typical haunts when heavy rain falls in a short amount of time will need to be monitored.

Considering this weather maker is still split into two parts over two separate bodies of water, the forecast will need to be fine-tuned over the next 24 to 36 hours. Timing and severe potential — or not — will be better handled as high-resolution forecast models come into range of the rain event and this Pacific low moves over more data points in the Western US. Updates can be found as we have them here on KBTX.com, in your KBTX PinPoint Weather app, and on-air.