Focus at Four: Chief Meteorologist Shel Winkley discusses NOAA winter outlook

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) – A warm winter could be on the horizon according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter outlook for the 2023-2024 season.

KBTX Chief Meteorologist Shel Winkley joined First News at Four on Tuesday to discuss the outlook, what causing the hot temperatures, and what everyone can expect.

According to the winter outlook, a big driver of this year’s warm winter weather will be a longer-lasting El Niño, that will continue heading into winter.

“It comes down to the waters over the equatorial pacific and usually the trade winds move those waters well enough that it’s pretty warm down there, we can move the warm waters along the equator,” Winkley said. “What’s happening now with El Nino’s is those winds have weakened, so the waters become abnormally warm and that actually impacts the jet stream.”

Winkley said that caused the United States to get wetter than average conditions and warmer air up to the north.

“Technically in an El Nino year, we’re cooler than average locally but that’s because in a wetter pattern, you have more clouds, and you have more rain or maybe even wintery weather to hold temperatures back,” Winkley said.

The winter months are divided up into December, January and February and according to NOAA there is the potential for an above-average winter of rainfall which is a little over 10 inches for the Brazos Valley, Winkley said.

“Which is great because technically 2023 is ended at least at this point drier than average,” Winkley said. “We took a really big hit in the summertime, so if we can get some moisture in, in the winter, the spring looks better, especially for the farmers and ranchers in the area.”

Winkley said that based on NOAA’s report it’s likely the Brazos Valley will see fluctuating cold and warm temperatures throughout the winter season instead of steady average days providing this week as an example.

“We just went from this weekend that was insanely warm and it felt way hotter than October should to all of a sudden having a really big cold snap that for this time of the year is really uncharacteristic, it’s not unheard of, but uncharacteristic,” Winkley said. “I think that back and forth is what’s going to eventually even out to give us that near or right at average winter.”

As far as the impacts of a warm winter Winkley said as we approach the end of the season there’s still potential for a cold snap.

“That’s kind of the variable here that we don’t know is that climate change aspect,” Winkley said. “We know springs are starting earlier, but the downside to that is to be said is you can still have a couple of cold snaps break free. If the growing season is starting earlier, and spring seems to be coming in earlier and then we get this big killing freeze that can devastate things like the wildflowers or even some of those early spring gardens.”